Pace Consistency and Experience

I received a recommendation to break out the pace changes by the pace speed. I thought this would also be interesting. I would think the experienced runners who run 5 to 7 minute/mile paces would more likely keep a consistent pace throughout the marathon as opposed to the more casual runners.

So I tweaked my program and put the 2004 Motorola Marathon data through it. As anticipated, those who did the first 10K at 5 to 7 minute/mile paces were more likely to run at a similar pace at the last 2.7 miles. For example, 74% of those who ran the first 10K between 5 and 6 minutes/mile were able to run the last 2.7 miles within a minute of that pace. That percentage decreased to 50% for those who ran the first 10K between 6 to 7 minutes/mile, 40% for 7 to 8, 42% for 8 to 9, and then it went into the 30% range for all slower paces.

One thing that was mentioned is that the elevation of the marathon course is likely to have a big affect on these numbers. There is a lot of downhill in the first half. The second half flattens out.

In the future I would like to factor in the other splits (in addition to the first and last). Also, I would like to factor in age and sex to see how these affect the numbers. And as always, suggestions and comments are always welcome.

Minutes/mile changes    Number of Runners

in pace between first   and percentage 

10K and last 2.7 miles  within pace change

----------------------  ------------------

Starting pace between 4:00 minute/mile to  5:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59       1   100%

Starting pace between 5:00 minute/mile to  6:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59      25    74%

        1:00 to 1:59       5    15%

        2:00 to 2:59       3     9%

        4:00 to 4:59       1     3%

Starting pace between 6:00 minute/mile to  7:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59     134    50%

        1:00 to 1:59      83    31%

        2:00 to 2:59      20     7%

        3:00 to 3:59      15     6%

        4:00 to 4:59       8     3%

        5:00 to 5:59       7     3%

Starting pace between 7:00 minute/mile to  8:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59     264    40%

        1:00 to 1:59     184    28%

        2:00 to 2:59     127    19%

        3:00 to 3:59      40     6%

Starting pace between 8:00 minute/mile to  9:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59     471    42%

        1:00 to 1:59     306    27%

        2:00 to 2:59     173    15%

        3:00 to 3:59      99     9%

        4:00 to 4:59      35     3%

Starting pace between 9:00 minute/mile to  10:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59     382    33%

        1:00 to 1:59     304    26%

        2:00 to 2:59     217    19%

        3:00 to 3:59     112    10%

        4:00 to 4:59      62     5%

        5:00 to 5:59      30     3%

Starting pace between 10:00 minute/mile to  11:00 minute/mile

      -1:59 to -1:00      25     3%

       -0:59 to 0:59     288    36%

        1:00 to 1:59     191    24%

        2:00 to 2:59     136    17%

        3:00 to 3:59      83    10%

        4:00 to 4:59      24     3%

Starting pace between 11:00 minute/mile to  12:00 minute/mile

      -1:59 to -1:00      17     4%

       -0:59 to 0:59     125    33%

        1:00 to 1:59      83    22%

        2:00 to 2:59      65    17%

        3:00 to 3:59      42    11%

        4:00 to 4:59      23     6%

        5:00 to 5:59      10     3%

Starting pace between 12:00 minute/mile to  13:00 minute/mile

      -1:59 to -1:00      10     5%

       -0:59 to 0:59      64    34%

        1:00 to 1:59      35    19%

        2:00 to 2:59      37    20%

        3:00 to 3:59      20    11%

        4:00 to 4:59       8     4%

Starting pace between 13:00 minute/mile to  14:00 minute/mile

      -1:59 to -1:00       5     5%

       -0:59 to 0:59      34    34%

        1:00 to 1:59      19    19%

        2:00 to 2:59      14    14%

        3:00 to 3:59      11    11%

        4:00 to 4:59       7     7%

        5:00 to 5:59       8     8%

Starting pace between 14:00 minute/mile to  15:00 minute/mile

      -3:59 to -3:00       2     3%

      -1:59 to -1:00       5     8%

       -0:59 to 0:59      21    35%

        1:00 to 1:59      13    22%

        2:00 to 2:59       6    10%

        3:00 to 3:59       9    15%

        4:00 to 4:59       2     3%

        5:00 to 5:59       2     3%

Starting pace between 15:00 minute/mile to  16:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59      27    40%

        1:00 to 1:59      15    22%

        2:00 to 2:59       7    10%

        3:00 to 3:59      12    18%

        4:00 to 4:59       2     3%

        5:00 to 5:59       3     4%

Starting pace between 16:00 minute/mile to  17:00 minute/mile

      -2:59 to -2:00       1     6%

      -1:59 to -1:00       4    22%

       -0:59 to 0:59       6    33%

        2:00 to 2:59       7    39%

Starting pace between 17:00 minute/mile to  18:00 minute/mile

       -0:59 to 0:59       2    33%

        1:00 to 1:59       4    67%

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Note: To reduce the size, percentages under 2% were removed.

So not all pace groups have percentages that add up to 100%.

For more explanation about the chart, refer to the previous post.